On Monday, I participated in TEDxLaguna, the second TEDx event ever held in Mexico. I called for “leapfrogging toward Knowmad Society” (video coming soon). Also, Cristóbal Cobo shared an overview and invitation to join our Invisible Learning collaboration. I believe the event was a great success, and I am pleased to have collaborated with Ernesto Gonzales (the event’s organizer), his team, and the other speakers. Videos of the talks will be posted to the TEDx YouTube channel soon, possibly in both English and Spanish… stay tuned!!!

Related on the Net: El Siglo de Torreón: Muestran ideas transformadoras

This video was contributed to the Invisible Learning project. Do you have a video to share? If so, simply upload it to YouTube and assign it the tag invisiblelearning.

Upcoming event:

October 31, 2008

Mexico City, Mexico

Conference website: www.e-competencies.org

The Knowledge Society demands that we leapfrog ahead in our education systems, build a new digital literacy, and improve soft skills (creativity, innovation, collaboration, communication, and critical thinking, among others) that could help all 21^st century citizens become productive, effective knowledge workers. Educators, policymakers, business leaders, parents, and youth must identify and develop new sets of e-skills and e-competencies to help youth succeed, and build a capacity for success toward the 22^nd century.  The purpose of this event is to identify, project and discuss the e-skills and e-competencies required for success in the 21^st and early 22^nd centuries. This event will explore, gather and analyze relevant experiences in training and development of e-skills throughout North America.

The activity builds from the collaborative work of scholars from FLACSO-México, the University of Minnesota and the University of Toronto.  This public session invites thought leaders and innovators in the development of the e-skills to share their work and experiences. Guest presenters will be invited to participate physically or virtually, and all presentations will be recorded, translated into Spanish and English, and available for viewing online and discussion.

This event is funded through the support of PIERAN, the Interinstitutional Program for North American Studies at El Colegio de México, and the collaborating institutions.

This is not your typical conference!

To facilitate focused discussions and innovative approaches to dialogue on e-competencies, the organizing committee has established the following rules:

• No presentation may be longer than 10 minutes (this is the maximum length allowed by YouTube, and will be strictly enforced).
• A maximum of four PowerPoint (or similar) slides will be allowed.  It is the presenter’s responsibility to ensure both English and Spanish versions of their slides and any accompanying materials are available.

In addition:

• There are no registration fees for this conference!
• Although in-person presentations are encouraged, presenters may participate virtually (via Skype or Adobe Acrobat Connect) or in-person.
• Participants that find it difficult to participate via live video or in person may contribute a pre-recorded YouTube (or similar) video to be shown during the event and made available in the online library.
• Presenters and participants from throughout the world are invited.
• All participants will be invited to continue our discussions online at this conference website and elsewhere.
• All conference products will be made available for further dissemination and development through a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike license.

To submit a proposal, click here. (Deadline: September 26, 2008)

(Click here for the Spanish version.)

This paper introduces how the convergence of globalization, emergence of the knowledge society and accelerating change contribute to what might be best termed a New Paradigm of knowledge production in higher education. The New Paradigm reflects the emerging shifts in thought, beliefs, priorities and practice in regard to education in society. These new patterns of thought and belief are forming to harness and manage the chaos, indeterminacy, and complex relationships of the postmodern.

This paper then presents a comparative summary of a study of the future of higher education in Minnesota, USA. The study utilized a future-oriented, multiple-methods approach to identify potential futures for higher education and their related implications, consequences and policy actions in regard to the New Paradigm of knowledge production.

Data generated from a comprehensive review of the literature were developed into a set of statements and inputted into a Delphi questionnaire instrument. An expert group of 20 Minnesota college and university presidents (or their designates) comprised the study’s Delphi panel, which determined the level of importance, level of acceptability and possibility of occurrence for each item identified. Following the quantitative analysis of these three measurements for each questionnaire item, where group consensus emerged, each Delphi panelist was asked to provide qualitative statements on implications for their institution, policy actions, how to improve the likelihood of preferred futures, and the potential for competing institutions to lead in least preferred futures. Content analysis revealed ten thematic categories for implications and policy actions for higher education given the futures identified and evaluated. The findings suggest higher education leaders need to integrate the concept of accelerating change of the New Paradigm into their thinking and leadership practices and further align their activities to succeed in an era of accelerating change, chaos and ambiguity.

• Click here to preview the first chapter
• Or, purchase a PDF download or hardcover copy of this document online at the Education Futures store

SPECIAL:

Download now and save! For the month of September, the PDF edition is available for download at the discounted price of $30.00 $15.00 (50% off)!

A B S T R A C T

The convergence of globalization, emergence of the knowledge society and accelerating change contribute to what might be best termed a New Paradigm of knowledge production in higher education. The New Paradigm reflects the emerging shifts in thought, beliefs, priorities and practice in regard to education in society. These new patterns of thought and belief are forming to harness and manage the chaos, indeterminacy, and complex relationships of the postmodern.

This future-oriented, multiple-methods study identifies potential futures for higher education and their related implications, consequences and policy actions in regard to the New Paradigm of knowledge production. In the first phase of the study, a review of the relevant literature qualitatively scanned for trends in higher education and identified profound statements on the long-term futures of higher education in the United States, and globally, related to the three driving trends of the New Paradigm.

Data generated in the first phase were developed into a set of statements and inputted into a Delphi questionnaire instrument. An expert group of 20 Minnesota college and university presidents (or their designates) comprised this study’s Delphi panel in the study’s second phase, which determined the level of importance, level of acceptability and possibility of occurrence for each item identified by the literature review’s scan of the environment of higher education. Content analysis of the response set in the study’s third phase revealed ten thematic categories for implications and policy actions for higher education given the futures identified in the first two rounds of the Delphi process. The findings suggest higher education leaders need to integrate the concept of accelerating change of the New Paradigm into their thinking and leadership practices and further align their activities to succeed in an era of accelerating change, chaos and ambiguity.

This research helps to better inform the practices of leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders in Minnesota higher education and beyond. This study concludes with a note that through action on the findings and the feedback-looped, reflective consideration of policy actions, this study provides for the possibility of better informed and more future-oriented praxis by the higher education leaders who participated.

© John W. Moravec 2007

Which trend will have the greatest impact on education in the 21st century?

[ ] Globalization
[ ] Rise of the knowledge society
[ ] Accelerating change
[ ] Other: _______

The results will be posted below as I receive them. If you did not receive an invitation, but would like to participate, please email me at moravec@umn.edu with your response.

I will update this response summary over the next couple evenings:

(64 responses recorded as of last update)

Respondent Comments

Jeremy Hunsinger:

really the answer is that these three things are all the same and fall under the banner of something like ‘reflexive modernization’

Josef Mestenhauser:

Your choices are framed in the analytical tradition. Being systems thinker myself, I can only say that it is all four, the fourth being reactions and resulting conflicts against the other three trends.

Beth Ritter-Guth:

I think they all will have an impact, but globalization will have the largest impact. As employers try to cut costs, they will rely more on the free technologies afforded by the internet. The use of Web 2.0 and virtual worlds are cost effective and efficient.

Ann Randall:

I would say “other” because my answer is more specific than “accelerating change.” I think it will be an acceleration of the digital society in the ways digital media are incorporated into the education process.

Terry Beaubois:

I offer this challenging thought:
Understanding that currently many individuals have the capabilities of a major broadcast company of the past. What and how do we want to do to teach and learn in this environment? “Education” is not seen as leading in this area, is slow to see it, slow to understand it, slow to adopt it. Will Education as we currently know it even survive the move in to a future where access to information anytime, anywhere, moves education out of the classroom. When a student can research a project, make a video, post it on YouTube, and have it viewed by thousands of people, in the time it takes their teacher to write up an assignment, have it mimeographed, and hand it out to a bored classroom….what is the viability of current forms of education?

Cristobal Cobo:

globalization of information technology

Brock Dubbels:

[ X ] Other: _______poverty and lack of investment in the infrastructure.

sorry, pretty cynical, but i believe it to be true. It is the greatest hurdle we face.

Currently foreclosures on homes are up 40%, and in low income, esp. African American communities. Detroit and areas of Ohio and Indiana are in really bad shape.

The wealthy are increasingly becoming wealthier through overseas labor and new markets. In the mean time, our labor force for highly skilled work is being reallocated overseas where it is cheaper, and workers have advanced degrees.

One of the reasons I answered as I did is that I did not know what you meant by the terms you introduced.

Arthur Harkins:

Exponential increases in computer memory, processing speeds, parallel networking to create interlaced AI capabilities, intuitive SW/user interfacing, direct brain links, global real time information sources with hyperlinks, self programmable chips, thin film displays – including retinal, and Google archiving of books, journals, and periodicals.

Jonathon Richter:

I think there are lots of interconnections here, so that any answer says as much about that individual’s knowledge base and personal concern, as it may about any “objective” reply.

Accelerated change is a result of globalization, which in turn is pushing the rise of the knowledge society, for instance.

But what might be the trend with the greatest impact on education in the 21st century?

I think it’s the rise of 3D Immersive User-created Worlds. These are, for the first time in history, providing affordable access to a 1st person experience, like that which apprenticeships, field trips, science labs, and other effective pedagogies have striven for. We’ve instead relied upon “3rd Person experience” – getting the narrative through someone else, in the form of language or movie. This will probably break our centuries-old paradigm of how to structure learning.

Jayson Richardson:

I would have to say the rise of the knowledge society will have the greatest impact simply because it moves education away from hard skills to soft skills. It is not the ability to do one thing, it is the ability to quickly learn new things and transfer knowledge.

Michelle Kowalsky:

The media has promoted globalization as the trend du jour, and I am inclined to choose this one as a metaphor for what needs to happen in education right now.

I think the knowledge society is already here, as well as accelerating change, both brought about by the rise of easily accessible public internet in the early 90′s. These were big trends but didn’t change education all that much. . . not sure globalization will either!

If I had to choose a different theme, it would have to be something about the gap between what is taught in school and what one needs for life after compulsory schooling is over.

Bryan Carter:

I believe the greatest impact on education in the 21st century will be a combination of increased networking and bandwidth across the US and other countries…this will impact everything else.
Bandwidth in the 21st century is very similar to other forms of communication in the past, thus the increase in communicative capabilities will change everything we do…visual communication, tactile and others will all be affected by more bandwidth.

Scott McLeod:

Educational and political responses to shifts in workplace demands, accompanied and facilitated by inconceivable digital technology developments, are going to make this century quite an interesting ride!

Bill Sommers:

I think the rise of knowledge society will have the biggest impact. People are going to need more learning skills, not content acquisition. This means collaboration, creativity, etc. This will be driven by globalization. The leaders will have to manage change more effectively but I think knowledge society is the main driver.

Miguel Guhlin:

Howdy! The greatest change of the choices offered is “The Rise of the Knowledge Society.” Globalization also goes hand in hand with that rise, so, it’s difficult to imagine one without the other. When you suggest accelerating change, I assume you’re referring to technological change. Again, without technology, no “rise” would take place. So…i suppose that the rise of the knowledge society will be all-encompassing of globalization and technology.

HJ Barazza:

The core of education in our evolving societies will be founded (i believe) is the increasing amount and access to knoweldge and information. which at certain point empoweres accelerated changed and im not sure if its the same for Globalization…

Lisa Finsness:

Other: Lack of funding to prepare our students for A,B,C

Karl Fisch:

Of those choices, I think it would have to be accelerating change. But “other” . . . well, other holds a lot of promise as well, but I have a feeling most of the “others” will be closely related to accelerating change.

Terry Holliday:

The reason I picked accelerating change is that you asked about impact. Impact is usually measured by the personal changes that have to take place. Major changes have to take place in teaching and learning if our students are going to be prepared for a global economy and the rise in knowledge based society. Students will have to use different tools and teachers will have to plan for “impactful” learning experiences. Change will also bring about the most controversy with teachers ( we know this first hand) and it will bring about the greatest increase in student learning.

Wendie Palazzo:

[ X] Other: all of the above, the ability to be agile in reinventing systems and adept at sorting thru chaos in order to do so.

Stephen O’Connor:

It is difficult to look at these three areas and single out one as having the greatest impact on education in the 21st century. I believe they are all interdependent and are contributing to the impact we are and will continue to experience. That said, I am selecting globalization. As a world, it will be increasingly important that we understand the influence and impact of this phenomena. Hopefully, advancing technologies and a rise in a knowledge society will assist in our understanding of what it is to be a ‘world citizen’.

Jane Gilles:

If we’re talking P-12, my answer is “Rise of the knowledge society.” Higher ed is a different question. For Higher ed, I’ll say, “Globalization.”

Darwin Hendel:

Choosing only one was difficult, but I selected accelerating change because it is the most general of the three. Education historically has changed slowly, so this rapid change poses I think the biggest impact.

Heidi Barajas:

[ x ] Other: increasing differences between the social classes,
(especially effecting people of color from all nations) and the perspectives of the privileged about poverty

Fred Bartling, Jr.:

This is a tough one; any one of these will significantly push and affect the others which precluded my stating one as most significant. What I would suggest is that it’s not one of these that significantly impacting the others, instead its that these 4 are mixing together is such a dynamic and new form that out of this mixture is a new cocktail (odd metaphore). What we have to do is to understand that there is a new and distinct model that really hasn’t been named, acknowledged or even understood clearly.

Bob Utke:

I think the Rise of the knowledge society will change how teaching and learning occur.

I think the structures of education (private/public; vocational-technical; degree vs. certificate, etc) will be strongly impacted by globalization.

Jeremy Kemp:

These are MUCH too large to weigh. Something like ‘which has the greatest impact on nutrition, the fork or spoon?’

My answer: “All of the above.”

Steli Efti:

[ x ] Other: the transformation from the information to the education age

Jeffrey Schulz:

This question has really caused me pause…Here is my best attempt at the moment, having just come home from living abroad for several months:

I would like to say the rise of the knowledge society, but given my current context, having one foot in academia and the other in “the field,” I see the potential of the knowledge society giving birth to a new elite, with many still not being full participants, the education system being critical to this equation.

Globalization, on the other hand, I think is too broad and includes so many facets: knowledge production, capitalism, culture/clash of or homogenization or something in between, to name a few.

This leads me to believe that accelerating change may be the most critical factor….with the caveat that the acceleration of change is a given, but how we embrace, “manage,” and adapt to this change will have the greatest impact. Whether for good or ill, the impact may either widen the gaps that globalization and the rise of the knowledge society could produce, or it could draw in and create a much broader network of participants who create and design the 21st Century…and beyond.So in some regard, it’s not even the acceleration of change that is the impact, but the response to accelerating change.

George Kubik:

wirelessly networked/universally available, smart appliances

Kathy Brown:

[ x ] Other: changing demography

Lloyd Armstrong :

[ x ] Other: an increasingly dysfunctional cost/price model of higher education

Mitch Cooper:

I’m going to respond with an assumption that you are speaking of public education? If so, I think the greatest impact would come from individuals being knowledgeable about what they want and need in education and pushing for a change in the way those needs are met.

Dave LaMorte:

I think that accelerating change will have the greatest impact on education. Right now I think the goal of education is to give students career skills, but we will have a lot of catching up to do as new jobs develop and others fade away.

Christian Long:

Accelerating change is the one that comes to mind first, but not in the way that Pink or Friedman mean. Instead, it’ll be at the macro level of kids/parents trying to wrestle choices.

Customization is the real impact coming towards education, which may or may not be fueled by all the rest.

1. A global, knowledge-based society: Ubiquitous and ever-opening access to information creates a need for skilled workers who can transform information to meaningful, new knowledge.
2. The innovation-based society is emerging: Successful members of society will create innovative- and contextually-relevant applications for new knowledge.
3. Knowledge and innovation-based jobs are moving to India and China: Western companies have already learned that it makes sense to move industrial jobs offshore. Today, many companies are beginning to move their creativity and R&D jobs to markets with lower labor costs.
4. Personal success in the innovation society will require novelty at the individual level: Standardization and centralization at the workplace will give way to individualization and decentralization. Employees will be viewed and rewarded for their creative inputs as individuals, not for the roles they could play as proceduralized automatons.
5. Technology changes human relations: Advances in technology allow people to interact in new ways that were previously obscured by geographical, economic or social boundaries.
6. Jobs that exist today will not necessarily exist when today’s students finish school: Why do we insist on preparing students for jobs that existed before they were born instead of for jobs that will exist when they finish school?
7. An ageing population: Advances in sanitation, nutrition and medicine have extended life expectancy in many countries. The life span, about 127, is now the object of research and development. Should people be helped to live 2,500 years, or even “forever”?
8. Globalization: Tom Friedman is right. The world is flat. The phenomenon of globalization compels students and schools to compete on a global scale.
9. Change is accelerating: The doubling time of information is now under one year. In 20 years or less doubling time may drop to a few weeks. If our cultural institutions don’t change at least as fast, what will happen to our senses of identity and security? How can we become situated in the future as much as the present or past?
10. The Singularity is almost here: Human-surpassing intelligence will guarantee that the future is far more different than we can imagine. Are we supplying students with the creative skills required to thrive in a future that demands routine human creativity?