The Education Futures timeline of education
1657 – 2045
By John Moravec (Updated May 30, 2010)
This timeline of the history of modern education provides not only a glimpse into the past and present, but plots out a plausible future history for human capital development. The future history presented is intended to be edgy, but also as a conversation starter on futures for education and future thinking in human capital development.
Although this timeline is largely U.S.-centric, the trends impacting it are global, especially as we look to the future. Please consult the glossary, below, for additional information regarding many of the themes presented. As always, we invite your feedback and suggestions for further development!
GlossaryAugmented Reality: “Augmented reality (AR) is a term for a live direct or indirect view of a physical real-world environment whose elements are merged with (or augmented by) virtual computer-generated imagery – creating a mixed reality. The augmentation is conventionally in real-time and in semantic context with environmental elements, such as sports scores on TV during a match. With the help of advanced AR technology (e.g. adding computer vision and object recognition) the information about the surrounding real world of the user becomes interactive and digitally usable. Artificial information about the environment and the objects in it can be stored and retrieved as an information layer on top of the real world view.” (Wikipedia) Dark Ages of Modern Education: A period, marked by a retreat of educational progressivism toward standardized testing regimes, where innovative thought, action and outcomes in the education sector was stultified. During this period, the education industry relies on external creative inputs to drive transformations, but is incapable of transforming itself or providing meaningful external outputs. Manhattan Project: A secret project conducted by the United States (and allies) to develop the first atomic bomb. Developed at great expense, the outcomes of the project forever changed human culture society. In regard to education, this timeline calls for a Manhattan Project-like initiative to reform education, and thus transform the world. No Child Left Behind Act: “NCLB is the latest federal legislation that enacts the theories of standards-based education reform, which is based on the belief that setting high standards and establishing measurable goals can improve individual outcomes in education. The Act requires states to develop assessments in basic skills to be given to all students in certain grades, if those states are to receive federal funding for schools. The Act does not assert a national achievement standard; standards are set by each individual state.” (Wikipedia) A primary criticism of NCLB is that it forces schools to “teach to the test,” eliminating creativity and critical thinking development from curricula. (See also EF post “10 ways U.S. education is failing to produce creatives.”) Progressive Education: “Educational progressivism is the belief that education must be based on the principle that humans are social animals who learn best in real-life activities with other people. Progressivists claimed to rely on the best available scientific theories of learning. Most progressive educators believe that children learn as if they were scientists [...] More recently, it has been viewed as an alternative to the test-oriented instruction legislated by the No Child Left Behind educational funding act.” (Wikipedia) Technological Singularity: “…refers to the idea that technological progress would reach such an infinite (or at least extremely high) value at a point in the (near) future. This idea is inspired by the observation of accelerating change in the development of wealth, technology, and in particular our capability for information processing. Extrapolating these capabilities to the future has led a number of thinkers to envisage the short-term emergence of a self-improving artificial intelligence or superintelligence[1] that is so much beyond our present capabilities that it becomes impossible to understand it with our present conceptions. Thus, the technological singularity can be seen as an metasystem transition or transcendence to a wholly new regime of mind, society and technology.” (Wikipedia) Transhumanism: “…is an international intellectual and cultural movement supporting the use of science and technology to improve human mental and physical characteristics and capacities. The movement regards aspects of the human condition, such as disability, suffering, disease, aging, and involuntary death as unnecessary and undesirable. Transhumanists look to biotechnologies and other emerging technologies for these purposes. [...] Transhumanist thinkers predict that human beings may eventually be able to transform themselves into beings with such greatly expanded abilities as to merit the label “posthuman.” (Wikipedia) Turing Test: “…a proposal for a test of a machine’s ability to demonstrate intelligence. It proceeds as follows: a human judge engages in a natural language conversation with one human and one machine, each of which tries to appear human. All participants are placed in isolated locations. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test. In order to test the machine’s intelligence rather than its ability to render words into audio, the conversation is limited to a text-only channel such as a computer keyboard and screen.” (Wikipedia) |
Recommended Further Reading
|
To share this timeline in your blog or website, insert the following code:
<div><iframe src="http://www.educationfutures.com/flashtimeline/index.html" width="610" height="310" scrolling="no" frameborder="0"></iframe><p>Source: <a href="http://www.educationfutures.com/resources/timeline"> Education Futures</a></p></div>
Or, to insert a smaller version (500px wide), click here for the code.
Well, I won’t speak to your end-game, but I would be disappointed if NCLB makes it to 2015. . . and I think machines will be passing the Turing Test before 2025. Finally, if this is your prediction, can you describe the future you would like to see and how to get there?
Fun read!
I agree with your sentiment regarding NCLB, but I’m afraid that Washington is filled with real NCLB believers on both sides of the aisle. I’m not at all optimistic that we can expect any real change in this area for a while…
[...] in its resources section has an interesting/diturbing/predictable/challenging timeline – The Education Futures timeline of education 1657 – 2045: This timeline provides not only a glimpse into the past and present, but plots out a plausible [...]
[...] mag soms een beetje over de top zijn; het blijft leuk om te zien wat de mensen achter “Education futures” hebben bedacht. En het gaat ook iets verder dan alle voorspellingen voor 2010 die ons [...]
[...] it here: http://www.educationfutures.com/resources/timeline/ Read [...]
[...] Courtesy of EducationFutures.com [...]
[...] Education Futures 2010 7 [...]
[...] 07. Januar 2010Education Futures timeline of education [ Future in Education ] Von Martin_Hofmann um 18:31 Source: Education Futures [...]
[...] Und was eignet sich besser am Anfang eines neuen Jahres, als ein Blick zurück und nach vorn. In diesem Sinne hier eine kurze (amerikanische) Übersicht der Bildung vom Jahr 1657 bis zum Jahr 2045 (!). Source: Education Futures [...]
[...] Education Futures – Timeline This timeline provides not only a glimpse into the past and present, but plots out a plausible future history for human capital development. The future history presented is intended to be edgy, but also as a conversation starter on futures for education and future thinking in human capital development. (tags: timeline education future futures) [...]
[...] Kommentieren! Noch zum Ende des alten Jahres erschienen, aber ein schöner Start für das neue Jahr: die interaktive Timeline of Education von Education Futures. [...]
[...] World Future Society has designated the Education Futures timeline of education 1657 – 2045, developed by Leapfrog Institute’s John Moravec, as their “click of the month” [...]
The gov is using sophisticated AI already, China has replaced some university teachers with canned DVD lectures and will add AI soon. Don’t be fooled, anything this powerful and capable is already developed and in use…the question is when does it replace the ordinary adjunct?
Seven years ago, I went to a Nanotechnology conference at LSU and found cancer has been cured with Nanotechnology. Where is it? Put that question in the same box with why does Japan have 100Mbs Internet as standard (and going to 200Mbs soon) and why did the Japanese have wide screen HD TV 15 years before we did? I’m guessing it is nothing new…..greed gets my vote for many such questions.
Tech/AI will replace adjuncts in ten years or less…that’s is a guess with some education behind it.
Chief
Hi,
Why on earth talk about the future of Human capital? Think we have passed the age of the industrial society and have to move into a wisdom society, into the age of Conscious Evolution. So why not talk about education, human development, talent development etc.
cheers,
Thierry
[...] the future predictions made by various commentators. So it was with interest that I browsed the Education Futures Timeline today. According to the blurb, this timeline… “provides not only a glimpse into the past [...]
[...] Education Futures – Timeline By mgvh@ltsg Education Futures – Timeline [...]
Hi John,
Quick thought– I do wonder if it won’t be the wealthiest parents willing to experiment with brain implants/augmentation, but those who feel they have the most to gain/lose; those who perceive their kids to be suffering from some form of (perceived) disability like dyslexia or ADD. (I believe Ritalin went from a prescription to a concentration enhancer sought after by desperate students, for example.)
Overall, I think what I question most is whether the desire to increase cognitive/computational capacity is really going to be as much a driver for change as it’s outlined here. Last I checked, it’s (mostly) not the smartest kids in the sandbox (begging the question of the definition of smart, of course) who are getting elected and being showered with fame and fortune:-). This might raise the question as to whether someone is going to come up with some sort of brain modification for increased empathy– coming out of a solution to difficult concerns like Aspergers? The ethical challenges of this are huge… (Oh wait, I think there’s already software designed to improve recognition of human emotion by facial expression…add nanotech and mix well..?) I know you referenced the Turing test, but as I understand it, this tests the ability to appear human, not the actual condition of having (enhanced?) emotion…I’m gonna loose sleep over this one:)
Carmen, I think we’ll see all sorts of drivers emerge that will promote the development of human-machine neural connectivity. As the elections in Iran showed us, new technologies (i.e. Twitter) can be used for both good and bad purposes. Whereas we may see some well-intentioned parents opt to provide their children with the best mind-enhancing tools possible, might we also see oppressive states, religious zealots and other extremists use these technologies to control or pre-program their target population?
One blogger responded to this timeline: “Imagine having, say, an entire biblical library implanted in your brain, always available just for the thinking of it.”
That scares the bejesus out of me. We need to use these technologies to help us think more creatively and innovatively. We should not use these technologies to embed somebody else’s dogma or constructed reality.
[...] out this Education futures timeline. Nothing happened between 1657 and [...]
[...] muchos los futuros que se adivinan en el gráfico. También la timeline de Moravec nos invita a reflexionar sobre [...]
[...] muchos los futuros que se adivinan en el gráfico. También la timeline prospectiva de Moravec (hasta 2045) nos invita a reflexionar sobre [...]
[...] by Robert French in IT Administration, Musings on Technology. Tagged: futurism. Leave a Comment Education Futures has published a very interesting timeline of education encompassing the years 1657 through 2045. [...]